My rankings of the 10 Democrats most likely to win in 2028

It’s July 10, 2025. With the 2028 race starting in earnest, I thought it was time to update my rankings of the candidates jockeying for space in the race. When I first did this back in April, I simply sorted the candidates into tiers. And I wound up listing 21 potential candidates — which is too many! This time around I decided to do a real ranking. Below you will find the 10 Democrats most likely to wind up as the party’s nominee in 2028 as of today. Which, I will note again, is July 10, 2025. Things can and will change — probably in major ways — between today and a year from now, much less by January 2028. These rankings are the result of conversations with political pros, my observations of the potential candidates and decades (I am old!) of watching how the two parties pick their nominees.