Oct 08, 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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<\/figure>\n\n\n\nWith summer slowly but surely turning into fall here in DC \u2014 tomorrow\u2019s high<\/em> is 64 degrees! \u2014 the landscape on which the fight for the Senate majority will be fought is coming into much clearer focus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Democrats look likely to land a HUGE recruiting victory<\/a> as soon as next week with term-limited Gov. Janet Mills reportedly ready to take on Maine Sen. Susan Collins, the most vulnerable GOP incumbent up for reelection next November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n While Mills isn\u2019t guaranteed the nomination \u2014 oyster farmer Graham Platner has already been endorsed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders<\/a> and is a favorite of liberals nationally \u2014 her likely decision to run suggests that ambitious Democrats think 2026 is going to be a good year to be on the ballot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In fact, in the most competitive Senate races on the ballot next year, national Democrats have landed their top recruit in almost every<\/em> one: Mills in Maine, Roy Cooper in North Carolina, Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Chris Pappas in New Hampshire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Even in Texas, where Democrats are headed for a likely primary fight between former Rep. Colin Allred and state Rep. James Talarico, the party has two very solid options who could take advantage of GOP infighting to make the race surprisingly competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The one big recruit still out there for Democrats is former Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola. Peltola, who lost her reelection bid for Alaska\u2019s statewide Congressional seat in 2024, remains a popular figure in the Last Frontier and has a demonstrated ability to win Republican votes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n She continues to mull over whether to run for Senate or governor in 2026 <\/a>\u2014 and has not set a timeline to make a decision. If Peltola runs against Sen. Dan Sullivan, that race \u2014 assuming a good year nationally for Democrats \u2014could be a sleeper. If she runs for governor, Sullivan will walk to another term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Below are my rankings of the 10 most competitive Senate races in 2026. They are ranked by the likelihood of the seat switching parties, with the #1 race the most likely to switch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I\u2019ve also noted \u2014 in parentheses after each write-up \u2014 where I ranked the seat the last time I did this back in August<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This post \u2014 and ALL future 2026 Senate and gubernatorial rankings as well as my 2028 presidential lists \u2014 will be behind the paywall. This is the sort of insider information and analysis that I believe distinguishes me in the world of independent journalism.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n I hope you consider becoming a paid subscriber today. For just $6 a month or $60 for the entire year, you get access to ALL of my content including my weekly podcast with Chuck Todd<\/a>, an exclusive Sunday email with my recommendations on what to watch and listen to<\/a> and my Friday Mailbag post<\/a> where I answer questions from the \u201cSo What\u201d community!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Alaska is a different kind of place \u2014 with a different kind of politics. While it\u2019s solidly Republican at the presidential level, voters in the state are less reflexively partisan than in the lower 48. Sullivan is a standard-issue conservative but a Peltola candidacy would make this race intriguing. Also, if Peltola does<\/em> run, Alaska is a VERY cheap place to run TV ads \u2014 meaning national Democrats could take a bit of a flyer here without much financial risk. (Previous ranking: 10)<\/p>\n\n\n\n Democratic Sen. Tina Smith announced her retirement in February<\/a>. Republicans still<\/em> don\u2019t have a serious candidate in this open seat. That tells you everything you need to know about the state of the race. Unless something changes, Republicans are likely to nominate former NBA player Royce White<\/a>, who lost<\/a> to Sen. Amy Klobuchar by 16 points in 2024. The Democratic side is where the action is with a major primary forming between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig. Flanagan appears to be the liberal option while Craig will tout her appeal in a swing suburban district as evidence she can win statewide. Craig has a fundraising edge and, to my mind, is a slight favorite to be the nominee. (Previous ranking: 9)<\/p>\n\n\n\n Republican Sen. Joni Ernst\u2019s retirement<\/a> in late August surprised exactly no one. And it actually made it more<\/em> likely that the GOP will keep this seat in their column next year. Ernst\u2019s \u201cwell we\u2019re all gonna die<\/a>\u201d comment was going to haunt her and I couldn\u2019t see how she could get beyond it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n10. Alaska (Republican controlled)<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
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<\/a>9. Minnesota (Democratic controlled)<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
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<\/a>8. Iowa (R)<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
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