{"id":37,"date":"2025-09-15T16:53:02","date_gmt":"2025-09-15T16:53:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/?p=37"},"modified":"2025-10-18T14:57:20","modified_gmt":"2025-10-18T14:57:20","slug":"here-we-go","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/?p=37","title":{"rendered":"My rankings of the 10 Republicans most likely to win in 2028 \ud83c\udfc6"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Here We Go!!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris Cillizza<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jul 16<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

(Image generated by CHatGPT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last week, I ranked the 10 Democrats with the best chance<\/a> \u2014 as of today! \u2014 of winning the 2028 presidential nomination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today I take on the Republicans\u2019 2028 field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first thing to note is that the 2028 GOP race is not nearly<\/em> as advanced as the one on the Democratic side. While a few candidates have started to do small things that suggest their intentions \u2014 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ramping up his PAC<\/a>, for example \u2014 the race is still largely dormant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why? Simple! None of the people who want to follow Donald Trump into office are at all interested in pissing him off. And there is no quicker way to piss Trump off than to look like you are putting your own future ambitions ahead of his current success.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s also this: Trump keeps flicking at the idea that there are \u201cways\u201d he might be able to run again in 2028. Is he just trolling the media and Democrats? Or is he serious about at least exploring the possibility of challenging the Constitution?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

None of the 10 people on my list below know the answer to that question. And none of them want to look like they are trying to force Trump to the sidelines prematurely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All of this is to say that the 2028 Republican race is going to be a very<\/em> delicate proposition for ambitious candidate over the next 18 months. You need to do the sorts of things \u2014 travel to early states, schmooze major donors etc. \u2014 to put yourself in a good place to run. But you have to do all of that without making Trump (and his political team) angry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not easy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These rankings are the result of conversations with political pros, my observations of the potential candidates and decades of watching how the two parties pick their nominees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This post \u2014 and all future 2028 rankings posts \u2014 will be behind the paywall. This is the sort of insider information and analysis that I believe distinguishes me as someone calling balls and strikes no matter what uniform the batter at the plate is wearing.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I hope you consider becoming a paid subscriber today. For just $6 a month or $60 for the entire year, you get access to ALL of my content including my weekly podcast with Chuck Todd<\/a>, an exclusive Sunday email with my recommendations on what to watch and listen to<\/a> and my Friday Mailbag post<\/a> where I answer questions from the \u201cSo What\u201d community!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not ready to become a subscriber yet? Here’s a way to access just this one article and support my work in the process. No commitments, no gimmicks, just the story you want and direct support for independent journalism for less than $1<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

10. Ron DeSantis<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
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(Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis\/ Wikmedia Commons)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ron DeSantis wants to run for president again. This much I know. He will be term-limited out of office as governor of Florida at the end of 2026 and, at just 46 years old, he absolutely does not want to be done with politics. DeSantis has two problems as I see it: 1) Trumpworld \u2014 including the president himself \u2014 is not a fan of his and 2) When DeSantis ran in 2024, he was \u2014 how to say this nicely \u2014 underwhelming. For DeSantis to have any real chance at the nomination, he would have to get MUCH better on the campaign trail. And I don\u2019t know that he\u2019s capable of that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

9. Ted Cruz<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
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(Ted Cruz\/ Wikimedia Commons)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cruz has done absolutely everything in his power to get right with the president and the MAGA base. But will they ever \u2014 really \u2014 forget Cruz\u2019s 2016 campaign against Trump or his public refusal to endorse the party\u2019s nominee at that year\u2019s Republican National Convention? I suspect not. Cruz is an able candidate and communicator \u2014 as he showed in that race. Having run once before, he knows what it takes. I just can\u2019t see how he would ever convince the MAGA base \u2014 given the other likely candidates in the field \u2014 that he is their guy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

8. Tim Scott<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
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(Tim Scott\/ Wikimedia Commons)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I was _very_ bullish on the South Carolina Senator\u2019s bid in 2024. He has an amazing backstory. He tells it well. He looks and sounds like a different kind of Republican. But that campaign was very very mid (in the word of my teenagers). Scott never seemed to really commit to the race, like he just didn\u2019t have the heart to do what it takes to win \u2014 or even really compete. Will that change if he runs in 2028? Maybe \u2014 but I doubt it. Scott seems to me more like a voice in the choir as opposed to one of the leads in the 2028 play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

7. Glenn Youngkin<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
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(Glenn Youngkin\/Wikimedia Commons)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we were back in 2012, Youngkin would be the perfect Republican profile to be the next nominee for the party. He spent years in the private sector (as an uppity-up in The Carlyle Group) and then got elected governor of Democratic-leaning Virginia in 2021. His term is up at the end of this year, giving him plenty of running room to begin plotting a 2028 bid. But, we aren\u2019t in 2012 anymore. This is the MAGA-fied GOP. And I don\u2019t know that a party that chose Donald Trump not once but twice is really going to go for a genial business guy whose distinguishing characteristic is the red vest he wears<\/a>. If the establishment of the GOP still exists \u2014 and I am skeptical they do \u2014 Youngkin will be their guy. But Jeb Bush was their guy in 2016 \u2014 and we know how that turned out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6. Tucker Carlson<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
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(Tucker Carlson\/ Wikimedia Commons)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Candidly, Tucker would be in the top 3 on this list<\/a> if I was more convinced he was actually interested in running for president. Why? He\u2019s incredibly well known and popular within the MAGA base. His years on television have made him a very effective messenger. He\u2019s dramatic and over the top in ways that remind me of Trump. Last month on his podcast, Tucker revealed that Rupert Murdoch tried to get him to run for president in 2024 but he demurred. \u201cObviously, I\u2019m not going to be running for any office,\u201d Carlson said<\/a>. \u201cYou know, I would never get elected to any \u2014 plus I like Trump! The funny thing is, I actually genuinely, I get frustrated. I\u2019m frustrated now\u2014but I like Trump.\u201d But if there is no Trump in the 2028 race\u2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. Marco Rubio<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
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(Marco Rubio\/Wikimedia Commons)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don\u2019t really know what to do with the Secretary of State. On the one hand, he has clearly emerged as one of the early stars of the second Trump Administration \u2014 serving not only as the nation\u2019s top diplomat but also holding down the national security adviser gig. On the other, he\u2019s not a natural MAGA guy, no matter how hard he tries to cosplay as one. And the MAGA base has a long memory \u2014 and likely remembers when Rubio went nuclear on Trump (small hands<\/a>!!!) during the 2016 race. Rubio is talented. He\u2019s clearly mastered the inside game of Trumpworld \u2014 at least to this point. I just suspect there will be more hardcore Trump-y options in the 2028 GOP field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Sarah Huckabee Sanders<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
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(Sarah Huckabee Sanders\/Wikimedia Commons)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think Sanders, the governor of Arkansas, is a bit of an undervalued commodity at the moment. She is going to be easily reelected to a second term next fall. Which lines up perfectly with her starting a presidential bid in, say, spring 2027. She has very solid MAGA credentials from her starring role in Trump\u2019s first term as White House press secretary. And her father, former governor Mike Huckabee, remains a popular figure in evangelical circles. Plus, as a 42-year-old woman, Sanders can make a credible argument that she represents the next<\/em> generation of Trumpism. She\u2019s stepped wrong a few times \u2014 her flirtation with a DeSantis endorsement in 2024, the whole podium debacle<\/a> \u2014 but generally has been sure-footed. I would buy Sanders\u2019 stock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
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(RFK Jr.\/ Wikimedia Commons)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Know what the best predictor of a future presidential bid is? Having run for president before! You never really get it out of your system. Which is why I was not surprised at all to read in Axios this morning that the RFK Jr. PAC is back operational<\/a> \u2014 and that people are already talking about him running for the Republican nomination in 2028. For people who roll their eyes about the possibility, I would urge you to spend a little time on Instagram \u2014 and see how broad (and varied) the Make America Healthy Again movement is. Plus, Kennedy is a star\/celebrity in the eyes of lots and lots of people. And what Trump showed is that celebrity matters. A lot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Donald Trump Jr.<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
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(Donald Trump Jr.\/ Wikimedia Commons)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here are three things we know: 1) Donald Trump Jr. is very interested in running for elected office in his own right 2) Donald Trump Sr. is only loyal to people with whom he is blood related 3) Senior very much wants his political movement to last beyond his presidency. Given those three facts, I don\u2019t see how you can rate Trump Jr. any lower than this \u2014 unless and until he definitively<\/em> rules out running for president in 2028. I do<\/em> think his friendship with Vice President JD Vance is a complicating factor. Don Jr. was a huge influence in getting his dad to pick Vance \u2014 and so it would be a little weird if he then turned around and ran against the VP. But, politics is a tough business. And loyalty for the Trumps (all of them!) is a one-way street.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. JD Vance<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
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(JD Vance\/ Wikimedia Commons)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vance is in the pole position to be the nominee. He\u2019s young, talented, smart and hugely ambitious. If I had to pick a nominee today, it would be him. But, I don\u2019t think it\u2019s a sure thing. I noted \u2014 as did JD I am sure! \u2014 that Trump said \u201cno\u201d<\/a> when asked earlier this year if he saw Vance as his successor in 2028. And remember that there are plenty of quotes out there from Vance running Trump down \u2014 quotes that you can be sure his 2028 opponents will dredge up. (Vance even called himself a \u201cNever Trump\u201d guy<\/a>!) Again, I think every Republican but Don Jr. (and maybe RFK Jr.) would trade places with Vance in a second in terms of how he is positioned for 2028. I just think it\u2019s potentially a much rockier road to the nomination than some in Vance\u2019s world might think.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Here We Go!! Chris Cillizza Jul 16 (Image generated by CHatGPT) Last week, I ranked the 10 Democrats with the best chance \u2014 as of today! \u2014 of winning the 2028 presidential nomination. Today I take on the Republicans\u2019 2028 field. The first thing to note is that the 2028 GOP race is not nearly as advanced as the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":38,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_ledewire_sync_enabled":true,"_ledewire_price_cents":50,"_ledewire_teaser":"Last week,\u00a0I ranked the 10 Democrats with the best chance\u00a0\u2014 as of today! \u2014 of winning the 2028 presidential nomination.\r\n\r\nToday I take on the Republicans\u2019 2028 field.\r\n\r\nThe first thing to note is that the 2028 GOP race is not\u00a0nearly\u00a0as advanced as the one on the Democratic side. While a few candidates have started to do small things that suggest their intentions \u2014\u00a0Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ramping up his PAC, for example \u2014 the race is still largely dormant.\r\n\r\nWhy? Simple! None of the people who want to follow Donald Trump into office are at all interested in pissing him off. And there is no quicker way to piss Trump off than to look like you are putting your own future ambitions ahead of his current success.","_ledewire_use_excerpt":true,"_ledewire_paywall_enabled":true,"_ledewire_content_id":"9816cb9a-40cd-422a-9d7d-5a9d7673a68b","_ledewire_sync_status":"synced","_ledewire_last_sync":"2025-10-18 14:57:21","_ledewire_error_message":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-candidate-rankings"],"ledewire_meta":{"sync_enabled":"1","price_cents":"50","teaser":"Last week,\u00a0I ranked the 10 Democrats with the best chance\u00a0\u2014 as of today! \u2014 of winning the 2028 presidential nomination.\r\n\r\nToday I take on the Republicans\u2019 2028 field.\r\n\r\nThe first thing to note is that the 2028 GOP race is not\u00a0nearly\u00a0as advanced as the one on the Democratic side. While a few candidates have started to do small things that suggest their intentions \u2014\u00a0Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ramping up his PAC, for example \u2014 the race is still largely dormant.\r\n\r\nWhy? Simple! None of the people who want to follow Donald Trump into office are at all interested in pissing him off. And there is no quicker way to piss Trump off than to look like you are putting your own future ambitions ahead of his current success.","use_excerpt":"1","paywall_enabled":"1","content_id":"9816cb9a-40cd-422a-9d7d-5a9d7673a68b","sync_status":"synced","last_sync":"2025-10-18 14:57:21","error_message":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=37"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40,"href":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37\/revisions\/40"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/38"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=37"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=37"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=37"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}