{"id":27,"date":"2025-09-15T15:39:19","date_gmt":"2025-09-15T15:39:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/?p=27"},"modified":"2025-10-18T14:48:04","modified_gmt":"2025-10-18T14:48:04","slug":"my-rankings-of-the-10-democrats-most-likely-to-win-in-2028","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/?p=27","title":{"rendered":"My rankings of the 10 Democrats most likely to win in 2028"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>ChrisCillizza<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>7\/10\/2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">It&#8217;s all happening!<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/@chriscillizza\">Chris Cillizza<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jul 10<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ci3.googleusercontent.com\/meips\/ADKq_NYP9VcJBPAXwsaQXdt0_8d601_F30rJ5Uhg5YryGHebfUt3kfy5nQWxS3iU76xUXsySHPtsnay7BDN1B_ICZU_Hk5Caxn1d25F50-KJd3D8oY0dX-XJl-TFpOvSu4cOpdpV2QOBVBB2waLMTlNPCG4K64_kNlgdGUWPRtWCsoJg3tN2hy8aE42WLN17T_ySTVINgLmh2o6yBqZrx9Ttt82H3BUhw-m47S5v7v3vsBjsg3pUF_QmRthCDXJEhpO3xbiqdxY_Ik_XzGinCagpxGwYXAO9H417wID0L4zAU8eerCgmFUdyp4JYEBJY-yjxM2kgovuR=s0-d-e1-ft#https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!G0Bt!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe8915a2b-1d83-46b8-979f-3e78a23cce65_2048x2048.png\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Image created by Google Gemini AI)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s July 10, 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, is&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/07\/08\/politics\/gavin-newsom-south-carolina-trump?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email\">wrapping up a two-day swing through South Carolina<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Next week California Rep. Ro Khanna will&nbsp;<em>also<\/em>&nbsp;be in South Carolina for a town hall meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Newly-elected Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego is&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.desmoinesregister.com\/story\/news\/politics\/2025\/07\/09\/ruben-gallego-iowa-state-fair-visit-2028-presidential-election\/84506965007\/?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email\">going to be at the Iowa State Fair<\/a>&nbsp;\u2014 an amazing event! \u2014 next month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Let me reiterate: It\u2019s July 10, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The level of activity among would-be 2028 Democratic aspirants speaks to the fact that the minority party \u2014 out of power at every level in Washington and enraged by the presidency of Donald Trump \u2014 is doing all it can to hit the \u201cfast forward\u201d button on American politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They so badly want to blink and have it be the end of Trump\u2019s term that they are flocking to candidates touting their visions for a post-Trump politics like my mother-in-law trying to buy a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=lnZQZe5Y0MI\">Cabbage Patch Kid doll at Christmas in the mid-1980s<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=lnZQZe5Y0MI\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"480\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/ADKq_Na83DXrAaMSRsKyG7Fk0FNvZXoMQToeIYoqdxWBmKBXLxMXrrwE4CfFRlG93mvs98UoOnck4vRqVbKtnUds1LdiXpDAD5qA0Pq94gTYYmjkWlwNEVpdmQwUwMGDlh3gV5Lpn5ZsblxrIvk9SpKGRt-Rs0-d-e1-ft-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-28\" srcset=\"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/ADKq_Na83DXrAaMSRsKyG7Fk0FNvZXoMQToeIYoqdxWBmKBXLxMXrrwE4CfFRlG93mvs98UoOnck4vRqVbKtnUds1LdiXpDAD5qA0Pq94gTYYmjkWlwNEVpdmQwUwMGDlh3gV5Lpn5ZsblxrIvk9SpKGRt-Rs0-d-e1-ft-1.jpg 480w, https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/ADKq_Na83DXrAaMSRsKyG7Fk0FNvZXoMQToeIYoqdxWBmKBXLxMXrrwE4CfFRlG93mvs98UoOnck4vRqVbKtnUds1LdiXpDAD5qA0Pq94gTYYmjkWlwNEVpdmQwUwMGDlh3gV5Lpn5ZsblxrIvk9SpKGRt-Rs0-d-e1-ft-1-300x225.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 480px) 100vw, 480px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>With the 2028 race starting in earnest, I thought it was time to update my rankings of the candidates jockeying for space in the race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/redirect\/23dd4a4f-be63-4bd5-ac1d-04bb41abdca7?j=eyJ1IjoiNWc2eTNmIn0.tLqZMLIO3sa-_q4UfylBuOD723Peb3LjUseyzdpGw0A\">When I first did this back in April<\/a>, I simply sorted the candidates into tiers. And I wound up listing 21 potential candidates \u2014 which is too many!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This time around I decided to do a&nbsp;<em>real<\/em>&nbsp;ranking. Below you will find the 10 Democrats most likely to wind up as the party\u2019s nominee in 2028&nbsp;<em>as of today<\/em>. Which, I will note again, is July 10, 2025. Things can and will change \u2014 probably in major ways \u2014 between today and a year from now, much less by January 2028.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These rankings are the result of conversations with political pros, my observations of the potential candidates and decades (I am old!) of watching how the two parties pick their nominees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>This post \u2014 and all future 2028 rankings posts \u2014 will be behind the paywall. This is the sort of insider information and analysis that I believe distinguishes me as someone calling balls and strikes no matter what uniform the batter at the plate is wearing.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>I hope you consider becoming a paid subscriber today. For just $6 a month or $60 for the entire year, you get access to ALL of my content including&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/redirect\/a6681999-fdd2-47cf-9311-fd703314e92b?j=eyJ1IjoiNWc2eTNmIn0.tLqZMLIO3sa-_q4UfylBuOD723Peb3LjUseyzdpGw0A\">my weekly podcast with Chuck Todd<\/a>, an&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/redirect\/8f95cd8c-f5ac-4290-a705-9acd73714c1a?j=eyJ1IjoiNWc2eTNmIn0.tLqZMLIO3sa-_q4UfylBuOD723Peb3LjUseyzdpGw0A\">exclusive Sunday email with my recommendations on what to watch and listen to<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/redirect\/d0d72fb4-c0a9-4f33-b9d6-2f1b9c024cd7?j=eyJ1IjoiNWc2eTNmIn0.tLqZMLIO3sa-_q4UfylBuOD723Peb3LjUseyzdpGw0A\">my Friday Mailbag post<\/a>&nbsp;where I answer questions from the \u201cSo What\u201d community!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Not ready to become a subscriber yet? Here&#8217;s a way to access just this one article and support my work in the process. No commitments, no gimmicks, just the story you want and direct support for independent journalism for less than $<\/strong>.5<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">10. Mark Cuban<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/redirect\/0f2564e8-1cee-43b2-b2d4-c99d4f2dea2f?j=eyJ1IjoiNWc2eTNmIn0.tLqZMLIO3sa-_q4UfylBuOD723Peb3LjUseyzdpGw0A\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ci3.googleusercontent.com\/meips\/ADKq_NZIAlNCbuRB8YNLU1I16mZVPVrG0I4hy4K3ShqLgcs3BgnnWIYASF6fIlKzMBYyJXC26AM8tXgkJF5yQdZDvrdupcr0FxffZmySwNK6ddVlKtitENI5K6Fo2dU39tO5r7rGYCNnRsqcEJJ_ScRxum51y4Z3C6ENu-AbTGn-XXv19QDPpp4RRPtk6eBqO3PmUq9-vcge5IKx2_kEVMdEBMJX5ulz9ZiiJQVDwHCB7K-zBYrKS3GzvNI1JoYZtL6mu9t3X01PYe1-sfR5XUPv3Mr3v5cuj0bkV1e65cWodrkz7AfC2vlU7Guv_11ywK5DuC3FPow=s0-d-e1-ft#https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!MMtK!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4ed3b0e6-cc66-4a1f-ae6b-7951d13f8dc2_640x427.jpeg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>(Mark Cuban\/ Wikimedia Commons)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is a bit of a place-holder spot for an outsider candidate. You could put Stephen A. Smith or some business potentate here but I went with Cuban, the former owner of the Dallas Mavericks, because,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/redirect\/0a05b57a-e8a5-4795-bd8a-70fe9b6b0867?j=eyJ1IjoiNWc2eTNmIn0.tLqZMLIO3sa-_q4UfylBuOD723Peb3LjUseyzdpGw0A\">as I have argued in this space<\/a>, I think he has a really intriguing story to tell if he decides to run. I am convinced that at least one outsider type&nbsp;<em>will<\/em>&nbsp;run \u2014 and, given how little the Democratic activist base thinks of the establishment, could make some real noise. For now, Cuban\u2019s my pick to fill that slot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">9. Rahm Emanuel<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/redirect\/9f9ec695-847f-4fc1-91bf-ffb6244ff5b4?j=eyJ1IjoiNWc2eTNmIn0.tLqZMLIO3sa-_q4UfylBuOD723Peb3LjUseyzdpGw0A\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ci3.googleusercontent.com\/meips\/ADKq_Nb_KivZ5vASPB5tsk6ATHVDFfrxA-NgDNiwB1900iyMMQGiW79C97LopuEvmnl3Ksbdx6fPfCDCZiUu_Kcr68BqoEKTujuRwHCoP-WWJBFEMpboOf7EhTaECposoQfAV_WPUYwzWB1_PDb5a-U6XFQRhcMW9AQLPGCSH2eD_hpi3ihY5lCQmYSYVwALltg22VB1ffW4SeeusrxxxXqMIgU7a6Qy99ZSG_k3cn6RA2Oct5POUhprvaXK_LoutlKO5wRd-N8p30IBrL2RNj_iy2aiKVVSP50EsFriJuyYSXVelWa6YLtjo2KkL7dKO_YT8fMo-Vs=s0-d-e1-ft#https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!QLk2!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc948e0fe-4f44-4e0d-afad-cf81110b95fa_640x810.jpeg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>(Rahm Emanuel\/ Wikimedia Commons)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No one is making more clear his interest in the 2028 race than Rahm. He\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/2025\/07\/06\/america-china-beijing-trump-xi-industrial-policy\/?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email\">writing op-eds in major newspapers<\/a>&nbsp;and appearing on all sorts of political programs \u2014 including&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/redirect\/8df3707e-c563-4163-82fa-617932999e6a?j=eyJ1IjoiNWc2eTNmIn0.tLqZMLIO3sa-_q4UfylBuOD723Peb3LjUseyzdpGw0A\">my \u201cOut of the Wilderness\u201d Substack Live series<\/a>. Rahm has been one of the smartest message people \u2014 not just&nbsp;<em>what<\/em>&nbsp;to say to voters but&nbsp;<em>how<\/em>&nbsp;to say it \u2014 in the Democratic party for a very long time. His focus on education domestically and how to handle China in terms of foreign policy are very good issues to build a campaign on. How does Rahm \u2014 a notoriously abrasive figure \u2014 wear in the grip-and-grin politics of a presidential primary race? I honestly don\u2019t know \u2014 although he has won elected office at both the local (Chicago mayor) and federal (U.S. House) level so he must be doing something right! Emanuel\u2019s record as mayor of Chicago is, clearly, a problem for him in the race \u2014 especially among liberals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">8. Andy Beshear<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/redirect\/13547654-b5b9-4a57-8931-52c496f57349?j=eyJ1IjoiNWc2eTNmIn0.tLqZMLIO3sa-_q4UfylBuOD723Peb3LjUseyzdpGw0A\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ci3.googleusercontent.com\/meips\/ADKq_NbQcD7zCqaMjT9G1TSXjjb530vJ2iasozt-1VBM4dBys2TY2c7nPOMN72bc6zXATeZ5xPZ7n_C8FA4_6z2AVJvtOyMwALjNUGIyQDPBdeTyyddMscDsXEpwjdu7VYzXLFoELZUurkFo35_fGZRhTKT5yGy6ij1Xe93QVMR7afFagf5Qc8B0I56py-cplGO8OWpPO_kd47nuKTyThlJURAZ_38j6zYJpkA0i7RKxcGViFJuQXr-D-JOcbr5s7Ey07F0ahR5-F8r54ogeIi9LCwUmJutX04_w-pRLJEAN74TW9dL92L_bdOfc5-m1d6j2FvqxX38=s0-d-e1-ft#https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!mgIk!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0e960b84-d8a2-4bb9-9b20-199bae174549_640x797.jpeg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>(Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear\/Wikimedia Commons)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Do you have&nbsp;<em>any<\/em>&nbsp;idea how hard it is to get elected and re-elected governor as a Democrat in Kentucky? Very, very hard. Which means that Beshear, who has done just that, deserves a long look by a Democratic party trying to figure out how to expand its coalition outside of the two coasts. Beshear is still not terribly well known by Democrats nationally but my guess is he will use the final two years of his term \u2014 he\u2019s term limited out of office in 2027 \u2014 to move around the country and get his name out there. My one big question about Beshear: Is he just too moderate to win a Democratic primary in this day and age?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">7. Kamala Harris<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/redirect\/0bfa6d41-44e6-472a-bc19-fe079b9838ca?j=eyJ1IjoiNWc2eTNmIn0.tLqZMLIO3sa-_q4UfylBuOD723Peb3LjUseyzdpGw0A\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ci3.googleusercontent.com\/meips\/ADKq_NZXlJ_k64tEBcn4dpXMD32G72FbWyub2bXROyCU1LRXRG3EfNeQcYmGJbQmiyuyklzbqSsVpyYPP3mc2Pjm_rq1OeT1dcaUucvXOmwfqvONkLu8BQbGQODDcCvenEiGhbiBe7upqHF6KIzdXgEWN9UWWwoWisrgkzPSe6pxzqkfrgP0Ni-GGvo-4LaESP4UN2aR1aJliamhoeLZ_c0Vu1TemoBDBBl0epfEedgMbQ2HzUf2rVf8bipSA6Ix1citGhVSSNUSnnIGQULCRCVYIcIvw4OYvoIp2pqiAAYnwogV5J_Jvq2CCqVUOI_7Dxgv6rPA8pA=s0-d-e1-ft#https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!6Yco!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F88fb5c0c-7bae-4aae-ac3c-3592534ced04_640x608.jpeg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>(Former Vice President Kamala Harris\/ Wikimedia Commons)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you did a poll today \u2014 and somewhere out there someone&nbsp;<em>is<\/em>&nbsp;doing a poll today! \u2014 Harris would be at the top of the 2028 Democratic field. So why isn\u2019t she at the top \u2014 or close to the top \u2014 of my rankings? I am&nbsp;<em>very<\/em>&nbsp;skeptical that polls right now indicate much of anything other than that lots of Democrats know Harris\u2019 name \u2014 and don\u2019t know the names of some of the other 2028 candidates. But that name identification edge will erode. And when it does, I think Democratic primary voters are going to look for someone who doesn\u2019t remind them of the 2024 election. This whole conversation may well be moot if \u2014 as I think she should \u2014 Harris decides to run for governor of California in 2026. But, if she does run again for president, I think Harris\u2019 best polling day in the race might well be her first day in the race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">6. Wes Moore<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/redirect\/3ba67b04-6fe9-406b-9b82-b70e79bf76a1?j=eyJ1IjoiNWc2eTNmIn0.tLqZMLIO3sa-_q4UfylBuOD723Peb3LjUseyzdpGw0A\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ci3.googleusercontent.com\/meips\/ADKq_Na2DexjZ7kE1Sh8l8xGl-mH0A72f7FmgtuW2povS7Rdz1Pi1sAdBW-3LnzOyWxEl1fCK5RbmPuAfRRz_SpPNiPQ3wz6vWx0urwHTmOY3_nQGAR-nhWjOPQQNoHUoF7_VooLw0GLcHLJ5AVr6pTAs3dpbQAE3ZriVPH36Xeb38ldzId0Zd2r-yGl4JjmvcfIiD_maReMhxjPCzOHXI7ZhCnpaDlRSfDyO2k7-XjNxoEt-bMah5z7Gs-wUoPUH_lPL_FK5QKi7Pj_cxhoCJmj8hi5RLXv6AIcRwwkWvcQiNZK3PRnxb0QseUXeh6JzVwDJmA-CPI=s0-d-e1-ft#https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!hCoA!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F86cf8f83-8305-488b-9e5f-6a3b67306994_640x853.jpeg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>(Maryland Gov. Wes Moore\/ Wikimedia Commons)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Moore has largely laid low on the national stage so far in 2025. He, like Josh Shapiro, has a reelection race to worry about in 2026 \u2014 although Moore is a heavy favorite for a 2nd term given the Democratic tilt of Maryland. That said, Moore is clearly keeping one eye on 2028 \u2014 and how what he does in Maryland over the next few years could impact that race.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/slavery-reparations-wes-moore-veto-maryland-806af2d5d13f32eb77719935dcb43c78?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email\">His decision in May to veto a bill<\/a>&nbsp;approved by the Democratic legislature that would have established a commission to study potential reparation payments for slavery caught my eye. Moore clearly knows that reparations are an issue that could be weaponized by his opponents \u2014&nbsp;<em>he\u2019s too liberal and can\u2019t win a general election!<\/em>&nbsp;\u2014 and steered clear of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. Gretchen Whitmer<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/redirect\/c2ce360b-6d85-44a2-af90-5fb65d146866?j=eyJ1IjoiNWc2eTNmIn0.tLqZMLIO3sa-_q4UfylBuOD723Peb3LjUseyzdpGw0A\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ci3.googleusercontent.com\/meips\/ADKq_NakEv5C9evRMDi7-fvhnqt5GjfNq8niMiH9B9YSrSxi9kCw7BchQQWYdI8--xtWbLTyYTVlOcPqDeEDV6tUMHA3Pn7Z-V1YN61XXO7yKlM0T6q-CTzljm-DW_dGA7LPRaLKyJoxTMRXtmeZJeJ9Gsr8iIUXu1ge0EVdN49biGv5l7MbasBrBhi5ZQ9foisy-sFqhs-Vpc9HdU2y4kAsu_lezVdFFWqRqmxOKpvrp8dZi-cDL34ifloJ_lzOIZVAUQ-wKC9M-S3Cd4buOOGEhB6hzoblugyW0uL0Ciy_DplDvjKMnrFCIBJHx6tSHrR60j6MFiQ=s0-d-e1-ft#https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!bzMb!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3cb2e5b8-4d88-4042-95b9-e5527758a3b3_640x569.jpeg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>(Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer\/Wikimedia Commons)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regular readers know I started the year _very_ high on Whitmer. Two-term Midwestern, swing state governor, moderate record, charismatic, female. Lot to like there. But, the first few months of 2025 were not great for Whitmer. In April she came to Washington for a visit to the White House with President Trump \u2014 which probably&nbsp;<em>seemed<\/em>&nbsp;like a good idea. It was not. Trump used her as a political prop. And as Whitmer stood behind Trump \u2014 but still on camera \u2014 she was caught holding file folders in front of her face to hide (or something). Not great!&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/subscribe.freep.com\/restricted?return=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.freep.com%2Fstory%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2F2025%2F04%2F14%2Fwhitmer-oval-office-photo-hiding-face-trump%2F83077642007%2F&amp;gps-source=CPROADBLOCKDH&amp;itm_source=roadblock&amp;itm_medium=onsite&amp;itm_campaign=premiumroadblock&amp;gca-cat=p&amp;gca-uir=false&amp;gca-epti=z116461p001450c001450u117261e009000v116461&amp;gca-ft=31&amp;gca-ds=sophi&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=substack\">Whitmer has tried to make a joke out of the whole thing<\/a>&nbsp;but it wasn\u2019t a good look. She\u2019s gone quiet \u2014 on the national stage \u2014 since then, which isn\u2019t a terrible thing. While Whitmer\u2019s first half of 2025 hasn\u2019t been ideal, I still think the bones of her candidacy are strong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. Pete Buttigieg<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/redirect\/75b6574f-d797-4e22-9e64-46ee54d6a184?j=eyJ1IjoiNWc2eTNmIn0.tLqZMLIO3sa-_q4UfylBuOD723Peb3LjUseyzdpGw0A\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ci3.googleusercontent.com\/meips\/ADKq_NYNIL5JDf5D6q0z1g5hbzMpTkr1208ccX3aZzMX8JsNz87olJvIRNjoeGiIJZfL511X1_1krze_sDvALF26SUjHdCpjKUbK8xfVQ-e12wA3th79dnLECtVaVjWwf3N9FwndFedeajGp1JMdcb8xtsYHhmKG8XWpib8KVqXXx2DqISlhcPxrzTW7pG0nPa7AH86WitOgU6cZyp0CxjpSEvnBYw1XYQGBUttbUTsXVIhBy_BYv2nj2ChMOU8uCWHoszzONMs-gcyaXrv_i396LwPWK_OXNnCY0pE_W7P2H2WH2FvdoMsmm8aEFz8UJw3yXlJDImw=s0-d-e1-ft#https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!C2nz!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37ae556b-d0db-46bc-a69c-f1f7925b759b_640x360.jpeg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>(Pete. Buttigieg\/ Wikimedia Commons)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Honestly, Mayor Pete was the person I struggled with most in terms of where to put him on these rankings. In terms of natural political ability, he is right at the top. No one in this field \u2014 or the broader Democratic party \u2014 is a better communicator, smoother in interviews or smarter than Buttigieg. On the other hand, the reason his 2020 campaign stalled was that he didn\u2019t show the ability to win over non-white voters \u2014 especially in the African American community. And, in the limited polling I have seen on the 2028 field, black voters still aren\u2019t sold (or even close to it) on Buttigieg. That\u2019s a problem given the primacy of South Carolina in the nomination fight \u2014 and the massive role African American voters play in that state. If I know Buttigieg has a problem with black voters, you can be&nbsp;<em>sure<\/em>&nbsp;he and his team \u2014 which is&nbsp;<em>very<\/em>&nbsp;good \u2014 are aware of it. The question is what \u2014 if anything \u2014 they can do about it between now and 2028.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. Josh Shapiro<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/redirect\/6d635cae-131a-4157-aa09-920cdff5dc83?j=eyJ1IjoiNWc2eTNmIn0.tLqZMLIO3sa-_q4UfylBuOD723Peb3LjUseyzdpGw0A\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ci3.googleusercontent.com\/meips\/ADKq_NYfsXREZL6ID5ty5aDfQ5k6nG1Y92es2aH1zowgKMAAo03qInVWiSBN5HgO3RqsqnYFCZUxHDWY2_e4UF0K5yf9dqL69ucvK-tF22w0LmwVxi47hiRupckzZo4Wco3DMPtSUZSm-Z1c2ROWjOOoCLmh1RXu8RuX6vxeK1Z3Tf3Zgklj2EEFRxLZh3hwLw6CtOI9Aiv0IRWoBpzMfyCe5-79KGxXl_IkhAgJbd8ov0op3SdEaEQtR6WVpZij6K_eiByOI-oscGpeJDYpY5muezXqgXnk7LgKSFsly27Xu4EwE4Q37VUbYAyWUqoCkFVrIzgwJFk=s0-d-e1-ft#https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!_hnG!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd3ad44e1-2360-4349-a493-de85c827ee3c_640x427.jpeg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>(Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro\/Wikimedia Commons)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Shapiro has not been as blatant about his interest in 2028 as others on this list. That is clearly on purpose. Shapiro still needs to get reelected in 2026 \u2014&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/pittsburgh\/news\/dan-meuser-wont-run-for-pennsylvania-governor\/?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email\">although one of the main Republican candidates removed himself from consideration<\/a>&nbsp;on Wednesday \u2014 and the field of past would-be presidents is scattered with those who were so focused on running for the next office that they didn\u2019t win the current office. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2002\/11\/07\/us\/the-2002-elections-georgia-an-old-battle-flag-helps-bring-down-a-governor.html?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email\">Roy Barnes, anyone<\/a>?) I expect Shapiro to not say a word about 2028 \u2014 or make a visit to Iowa, South Carolina or New Hampshire \u2014 before next November when he should win a 2nd term. But I think that\u2019s just fine. He is a pretty well-known commodity to Democrats nationally (and his name ID went up amidst the coverage of the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2025\/04\/14\/nx-s1-5364554\/what-we-know-arson-josh-shapiros-residence?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email\">arson at the governor\u2019s mansion earlier this year<\/a>). And doing a good job \u2014 and being popular \u2014 in a 2028 swing state is pretty damn good for resume building for a national run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. Gavin Newsom<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/redirect\/4586e406-b526-49b6-93d8-4dd77bec9b54?j=eyJ1IjoiNWc2eTNmIn0.tLqZMLIO3sa-_q4UfylBuOD723Peb3LjUseyzdpGw0A\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ci3.googleusercontent.com\/meips\/ADKq_NZj5trToUT6-ysXcIFq37XPxVksK8ZByYahvmtPTG0dza2PfVJ3Kfi8x8uDft7riIgCmKFgrfeFJICA2BJCc-raDp1k_3jWnAZhlUbiFgCP6dYzVtxwiQgui77ukX_U54r9h5-SFdgW35hzyF5XbktiFqdrRMnu1cuMlI5iVZl-hHGgHHsu_kKjddkMukyTuGVe0Yy7AulwknjkdvZstYD8unnTIq4JXKrbHMhgqt-fw07qLS2_qu2SHApF2ryZgEhlwxVR6fvtKSBi7TPbbbpp7O0t3vAQzs1ZT8-Yq0tpMpQFkxjJWKEpuV7czwb4VCuHoMA=s0-d-e1-ft#https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!SEYA!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa44f79d5-2c1c-468b-889a-624b34408fcd_640x360.jpeg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>(California Gov. Gavin Newsom\/Wikimedia Commons)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think Newsom has done a bunch of smart things since the start of the year. He\u2019s moved \u2014 or tried to move \u2014 to the center on some cultural issues, like trans girls in sports, where the bulk of the country doesn\u2019t align with the Democratic base. He\u2019s shown a willingness to listen to \u2014 and debate \u2014 voices with whom he disagrees on his podcast. He saw the political opportunity created by Donald Trump\u2019s call up of the California National Guard to deal with the situation in Los Angeles \u2014 and grabbed it to become, at least for a time, the most recognizable foil to the president on the Democratic side. And even his decision to make his first obvious presidential visit to South Carolina \u2014 a state that has been critical to every single one of the recent Democratic nominees \u2014 is smart. My biggest issue with Newsom is one he can\u2019t really change: He was the mayor of San Francisco. He\u2019s now the governor of California. Are Democrats scared away from a resume like that given how easily Harris was caricatured in 2024?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/redirect\/06ce6965-f495-42fd-b1f7-914d99d69525?j=eyJ1IjoiNWc2eTNmIn0.tLqZMLIO3sa-_q4UfylBuOD723Peb3LjUseyzdpGw0A\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ci3.googleusercontent.com\/meips\/ADKq_NZp29ePhsK-mGJJTlg7lda7hheLrdE6lnksh8aeCUhi6jMr6zz7Am2RunNUoN8Bi4IPIs1gQfxeSWeBafqJr4-zq7oG5ZhWH3LZPqQ1mwpFD1R-kdyP8FDS5eGDhS-HlqD52AL_mwfk9Pj3y0Z32bniYhg3_9tUqwVDBhOt1Q7mRV35fTugoejFkBbFNnArdEuygaQRxj3sarl_S6_ewlcGFcjg33FxsvY4Z2c_lP5fmn4aYNijfR9bAqWr7OcNpsO04D0cnr6MYfk9_NrOrBnSM-6rR0FEk2zVX9sFdNqn8OAXo-upbKQv8Fl8h7QSVsBTMhE=s0-d-e1-ft#https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!2kkI!,w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd700b66-8706-4f85-8a1b-6d90df7e2afe_640x640.jpeg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>(New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez\/ Wikimedia Commons)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even before Zohran Mamdani\u2019s win in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor last month, I had been contemplating putting AOC at the top of the heap of 2028 Democrats. Why? Because, as of today, there is no other Democrat in elected office who could get 10,000 people to show up anywhere in the country with 48 hours or less notice. (The only other one may be Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, but at age 83, I don\u2019t think Bernie is running for president again.) While I know that being able to attract a crowd isn\u2019t everything in politics, the excitement and passion that AOC generates&nbsp;<em>does<\/em>&nbsp;matter \u2014 especially in a Democratic primary! She also is everything that Joe Biden is not \u2014 young, Hispanic and female. For a party trying to put the 2024 loss behind them, AOC looks the part. Is she too liberal for most voters \u2014 even in a Democratic primary? Probably. But I think primary fights for president tend to be decided far more on personality and pizzazz than on policy papers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ChrisCillizza 7\/10\/2025 It&#8217;s all happening! Chris Cillizza Jul 10 (Image created by Google Gemini AI) It\u2019s July 10, 2025. Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, is&nbsp;wrapping up a two-day swing through South Carolina. Next week California Rep. Ro Khanna will&nbsp;also&nbsp;be in South Carolina for a town hall meeting. Newly-elected Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego is&nbsp;going to&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_ledewire_sync_enabled":true,"_ledewire_price_cents":50,"_ledewire_teaser":"It\u2019s July 10, 2025.\r\n\r\nWith the 2028 race starting in earnest, I thought it was time to update my rankings of the candidates jockeying for space in the race.\r\n\r\nWhen I first did this back in April, I simply sorted the candidates into tiers. And I wound up listing 21 potential candidates \u2014 which is too many!\r\n\r\nThis time around I decided to do a real ranking. Below you will find the 10 Democrats most likely to wind up as the party\u2019s nominee in 2028 as of today. Which, I will note again, is July 10, 2025. Things can and will change \u2014 probably in major ways \u2014 between today and a year from now, much less by January 2028.\r\n\r\nThese rankings are the result of conversations with political pros, my observations of the potential candidates and decades (I am old!) of watching how the two parties pick their nominees.","_ledewire_use_excerpt":true,"_ledewire_paywall_enabled":true,"_ledewire_content_id":"555e5279-4b35-4e2d-b637-11c89fec7e03","_ledewire_sync_status":"synced","_ledewire_last_sync":"2025-10-18 14:48:06","_ledewire_error_message":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-candidate-rankings"],"ledewire_meta":{"sync_enabled":"1","price_cents":"50","teaser":"It\u2019s July 10, 2025.\r\n\r\nWith the 2028 race starting in earnest, I thought it was time to update my rankings of the candidates jockeying for space in the race.\r\n\r\nWhen I first did this back in April, I simply sorted the candidates into tiers. And I wound up listing 21 potential candidates \u2014 which is too many!\r\n\r\nThis time around I decided to do a real ranking. Below you will find the 10 Democrats most likely to wind up as the party\u2019s nominee in 2028 as of today. Which, I will note again, is July 10, 2025. Things can and will change \u2014 probably in major ways \u2014 between today and a year from now, much less by January 2028.\r\n\r\nThese rankings are the result of conversations with political pros, my observations of the potential candidates and decades (I am old!) of watching how the two parties pick their nominees.","use_excerpt":"1","paywall_enabled":"1","content_id":"555e5279-4b35-4e2d-b637-11c89fec7e03","sync_status":"synced","last_sync":"2025-10-18 14:48:06","error_message":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29,"href":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27\/revisions\/29"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/11"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/chris-cillizza.ledewire.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}